Covid-19 Predictions to Brazil

março 16, 2020 § Deixe um comentário

total_cases_spreding_prediction-MT16

Figure 1: Plot from April 4.total_cases_spreding_prediction-MT11

Figure 2: Plot from March 30.

NEW UPDATE

Last update: April, 4th – 5:20 p.m.

The plots above comprise data from World Health Organization (WHO) and was organized by Our World in Data (https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-source-data). Since March, 18th I’m updating the data based on information provided by the brazilian Ministry of Health.  They are from a predictive modeling I devised based on Taylor series (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_series#Calculation_of_Taylor_series) using the first and second derivatives of the continuous approximation of the usage data.

Figure 1 shows the forecast based on the last 24 hours . Figure 2 represents data updated on March 30th and contains the number of cases released at that point. I decided to keep it for comparison purposes only. It shows a S-shape (sigmoid growth curve), which I hope we soon see more often (and it actually appeared at that moment). A sigmoid curve shows an acceleration phase (meaning an exponential growth), with a change to linear growth (which would mean a stability  in the number of cases).  As we can see, the curve at Figure 1 shows a J-shape, meaning that the rate of change (known as derivative) of the number of cases with respect to time is proportional to the number of cases itself.

In plain mathematics, it is still growing at expfunc, an exponential function .

If the pattern continues as it is now, I’m forecasting that by April, 5th it will be about 11,572 cases. The total forecasts was extended to April, 20th (some 39,864 cases at this date) since it’s the date the authorities are working as the coronavirus peak in Brazil. I created a repo  on GitHub with the whole csv file (going up to April 25), click here to view.

P.S.: I will keep a daily update to calibrate the model and also a list below with the previous predictions.

Previous Predictions

  • Updated on April 3rd and comprises data up to April 3rd: 11,608 cases on April, 5th and 41,958 on April, 20th.
  • Updated on April 2nd and comprises data up to April 2nd: 11,008 cases on April, 5th and 23,700 on April, 20th.
  • Updated on April 1st and comprises data up to April 1st: 11,600 cases on April, 5th and 35,522 on April, 20th.
  • Updated on March 31st and comprises data up to March, 31st: 25,654 cases on April, 5th and 228,893 on April, 20th.
  • Updated on March 30th and comprises data up to March, 30th: 6,352 cases on April, 5th and 9,542 on April, 20th.
  • Updated on March 27th and comprises data up to March, 27th: 12,670 cases on April, 5th and 47,113 on April, 20th.
  • Updated on March 25th and comprises data up to March, 25th: 2,843 cases on March, 26th (the actual number was 2,915) and 6,672 on April, 5th.
  • Updated on March 25th and comprises data up to March, 24th: 3,113 cases on March, 26th and 14,331 on April, 5th.
  • Updated on March 23rd and comprises data up to March, 23rd: 3,999 cases on March, 26th and 24,311 on April, 5th.
  • Updated on March 22nd and comprises data up to March, 22nd: 5,622 cases on March, 26th and 32,784 on April, 5th.
  • Updated on March 21st and comprises data up to March, 20th: 4,929 cases on March, 26th and 20,558 on April, 5th.
  • Updated on March, 20th and comprises data up to March, 19th: 2,255 cases on March, 26th and 5,601 on April, 5th.
  • Dataset downloaded on March, 18th and comprises data up to March, 17th: 2,690 cases on March, 26th.
  • Dataset downloaded on March, 16th and comprising data up to March, 16th: 4,554 cases on March, 26th.

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